Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 27 ¼ cents higher ($13.57), August 34 cents higher ($13.36 ¾) & Nov 42 ¾)cents higher ($13.12 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $4.4 higher ($351.6), August $5.0 higher ($353.9) & Dec $4.4 higher ($359.3)

July Soybean Oil closed 260 pts higher ($62.31), August 225 pts higher ($60.45) & Dec 279 pts higher ($60.03)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 103.9 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Across the Midwest rainfall was seen this past weekend. Granted some areas did not get a lot where some areas got decent amounts. There are forecasts out there calling for the big heat to rebuild in the west, northwest. As far as the central and eastern areas of the Midwest I’m seeing warm and wet. Weekly export inspections were at the low end of expectations. It is my thought that a good portion of today’s higher prices are about positioning/posturing for Wednesday’s Stocks and Acreage reports. Given the last few days of activity the soybean market was in an almost sold out state.

The weekend rainfall is thought to have stabilized the nation’s soybean crop. Trade expectations are to see the soybean rating increase by 1% to 61% GE. The USDA reports the nation’s corn crop is now 60% GE (unch).

Ok – so for the near term do we try and trade the forecasts that calls for the rebuilding of heat and dryness in the west, northwest or do we wait for the USDA on Wednesday. The average trade guess for the soybean Quarterly Stocks is 787 M bu. (range 696-952). The average trade guess is to see an increase of 1.355 M  acres planted to soybeans vs. the March intention of 87.600 M. The range of guesses; 87.900 to 90.400.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/29

Nov Beans: $12.90 – $13.30 ($13.40)

Dec Meal: $354.0 – $366.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.50 – $62.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.