Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 88 cents lower ($13.63 ¾), August 89 cents lower ($113.44 ¼) & Nov 94 cents lower ($13.05)

July Soybean Meal closed $24.9 lower ($355.0), August $24.9 lower ($356.6) & Dec $25.9 lower ($362.4)

July Soybean Oil closed 299 pts lower ($63.83), August 307 pts lower ($60.40) & Dec 350 pts lower ($5.78)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 206.1 K T. vs. 90-300 K T. expected

Overnight rains in the Dakotas/Minnesota are thought to be keeping their respective soybean plants alive. It’s all about the forecasts elsewhere in the Midwest that prompted the near $1.00 lower move in the soybean market. Soybean oil takes its cue from the palm market which gave up the ship from its recent attempt at recovery. Soybean meal goes along for the lower ride. It’s way to early to say what kind of soybean crop we are going to have but the forecasted rains are working to keep the complex under psychological pressure. Just how the forecasted rains materialize is another story.

Trade ideas are suggesting the national soybean rating is unchanged from last week; 60% GE. The USDA reports the national soybean rating is now 59% GE (-1%). The USDA goes on to say 29% of the crop is blooming vs. 29% year ago and 24% 5-year average. In addition the USDA says 3% of the soybean crop is setting pods vs. 2% year ago vs. 3% 5-year average.

For as ugly as today was its my opinion that the increased volatility accounted for a good portion of today’s losses. Yes, we may see additional follow through based on current forecasts but as of this writing my thought is the mid-June low, roughly 12.50, holds November soybeans. I could be off base here but when comparing the bean oil chart vs. the soybean meal chart don’t be surprised to see soybean meal start to gain on the bean oil. If I’m right about this it will be mildly supportive to the soybean market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/07

Nov Beans: $12.85 – $13.35

Dec Meal: $355.0 – $374.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.00 (?) – $60.50

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