Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 22 ¾ cents higher ($13.86 ½), August 22 ½ cents higher ($13.66 ¾) & Nov 22 ¼ cents higher ($13.27 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.2 higher ($357.2), August $2.1 higher ($358.7) & Dec $2.5 higher ($364.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 93 pts higher ($64.76), August 66 pts higher ($61.06) & Dec 91 pts higher ($59.69)

After Tuesday’s dramatic sell-off Wednesday brings us some consolidation. I say consolidation as we barely put a dent into Tuesday’s losses whether it be in the soybeans, soybean meal or soybean oil. Rains are in the near term forecasts for parts of Iowa and Illinois east. This is old news. Now we sit back and see how these forecasted rains materialize. More importantly the USDA will update soybean supply-demand next Monday. They will use the June 30th acres and if they use the current yield they have been using (50.8 bpa) production will come in at unchanged leading to a reminder that the coming year could be just as tight as the past season. Normally they don’t fool with the yield on this report but they can make some adjustments to demand. I can make a case for a minor yield change. Last year at this time the USDA was using a 49.8 bpa while the crop was rated 71% GE. This year for the same time frame the USDA is using a 50.8 bpa yet the crop is only rated 59% GE.

Going forward by bias is to see additional attempts at consolidation. Granted the weather appears to be improving for a good portion of the soybean area but we are still far from realizing a crop. I can’t get off the dime that of the 87.5 M soybean acres just over 20 million have some pretty poor ratings; Minnesota 44% GE, N. Dakota 19% GE and S. Dakota 24% GE.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/08

Nov Beans: $13.15 – $13.50

Dec Meal: $355.0 – $375.0

Dec Soy Oil: $58.00 (?) – $61.75

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