Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 28 ½ cents higher ($14.32 ½), August 25 cents higher ($14.04 ¼) & Nov 21 cents higher ($13.50 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.4 higher ($354.9), August $2.9 higher ($357.0) & Dec $3.6 higher ($362.5)

July Soybean Oil closed 258 pts higher ($64.99), August 170 pts higher ($64.05) & Dec 142 pts higher ($62.36)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 200.9 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Highlights of the USDA Soybean Supply-Demand – US old crop – lowered imports 15 M bu., lowered crush 5 M bu., lowered exports 10 M bu., left carryout unchanged – US new crop – left all data unchanged – World old crop – increased carryout 3.49 M T. – World new crop – increased carryin 3.49 M T., increased carryout 1.94 M T.

Trade ideas have the nation’s soybean crop stabilizing from its recent slide. Expectations are to see national rating improve to 60% GE. The USDA reports the US soybean crop is now rated 59% GE (unch). The USDA goes on to say 46% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. the 5-year average of 40% and 10% of the crop is setting pods vs. the 5-year average of 10%.

Despite unchanged supply-demand soybean data from the USDA the soybean complex rallies on Monday. My thoughts are that a 155 M bu. carryout this early in the season leaves absolutely no room for problems and right now 3 of top 7 soybean acreage states have problems. Forecasters are calling for a return to hot & dry for the Dakotas, Minnesota and parts of Iowa. Right now conditions in Iowa and elsewhere appear to be pretty good but we have to remember that soybeans are made in August not in the first half of July. An observation from the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders soybean report; it looks like the managed money sector may be in the process of rebuilding its new long soybean position. In the “for what it is worth” department; today’s supply-demand tables are suggesting soybean oil will remain tight in the new crop and soybean meal will remain plentiful.

November soybean charts are trying to suggest a near term target of the 13.80 level; basically where the market sold off from last Tuesday. December soybean meal is looking at the $370.0 levels as it near term target. December soybean oil is trying to suggest it wants to see what the $65.00 level looks like as that is the level that acted as resistance on the previous attempt to rebound.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/13

Nov Beans: $13.35 – $13.75

Dec Meal: $357.0 – $370.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.00 – $65.00

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