Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 5 ½ cents higher ($14.38), August 10 ½ cents higher ($14.14 ¾) & Nov 1 ½ cents higher ($13.51 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($355.1), August $0.5 lower ($356.5) & Dec $2.5 lower ($360.0)

July Soybean Oil closed 164 pts higher ($66.63), August 149 pts higher ($65.54) & Dec 112 pts higher ($63.48)

Yesterday’s soybean rally stays alive in response to the continued strength in the soybean oil market. I’m told palm oil trades at a 5 week high and that spilled over in the soybean oil market. Soybean meal continues to be the dog of the complex despite what appears to be an improving cash market.  I find it interesting the soybean market could not sustain its early morning rally. For the time being crop conditions appear to be pretty decent for a good portion of the soybean areas. The far west and northwestern reaches of the soybean areas will come under concern if the forecasts for the latter part of July (hot & dry) come to fruition. Remember the success or failure of the soybean crop is contingent on August moisture.

Going forward the soybean market should be able to stay alive given the recent supply-demand tables suggesting both old crop and new crop stocks are going to stay tight. For the near term I’m not sure November soybeans are any better than the $13.80 level but no worse than the $13.00 level. December soybean meal appears stuck between the $350.0 and $370.0. So; will the $65.00 level hold December soybean oil? I would like to think it will but given this market’s volatility anything can and will happen.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/14

Nov Beans: $13.35 – $13.73

Dec Meal: $355.0 – $370.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.00 – $65.00

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