Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans expired 29 ¾ cents higher ($14.67 ¾), August closed 38 ¼ cents higher ($14.53) & Nov 31 ½ cents higher ($13.83 ¼)

July Soybean Meal expired $11.5 higher ($366.6), August closed $12.2 higher ($368.7) & Dec $10.8 higher ($370.8)

July Soybean Oil expired unchanged ($66.63), August closed 68 pts higher ($66.22) & Dec 27 pts higher ($63.75)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 125-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. 150-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -3+15 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The old crop cash markets in the soybean complex, most notably soybeans and soybean meal (old crop soybean oil already strong) are beginning to strengthen to the point the futures markets are finally starting to respond. It has been a while since the meal market was the leader of the products. It will be interesting to see if this can last more than a couple of days as that has been the case in the past.

We have known all along that the old crop scenario was tight it just took some renewed demand. I think the trade got lulled to sleep from the slowing rate of crush and the light export demand. Couple this with the weather fears going down the road (hot & dry resurfacing in the western, northwestern reaches of the Corn Belt while the central and ester nares turning dry) and the end result today was sharply higher prices. New crop soybeans cannot afford any shortfalls in production given the lack of additional acres this year. Here is nothing bearish about a projected new crop carryout of 155 M bu. this early in the season.

The gap that was created in November soybeans on July 2nd to July 6th has been partially filled. I say partially as on the July 2nd the low was $13.82 ½ and today’s high was $13.85 ¾. On July 2nd November soybeans closed at $13.99. that should be the next near term target. December meal is trying to advertise its recent correct is over. The initial upside targets are $383.5 followed by 388.3; these are the July 2nd to July 6th gaps. So far December bean oil is honoring the suspected resistance at the $65.00 level. I haven’t seen much of a rejection of that level so further tests remain much of a possibility.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/15

Nov Beans: $13.65 – $13.98

Dec Meal: $364.0 – $378.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.50 – $65.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.