Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 5 ½ cents lower ($14.47 ½), Sept unchanged ($13.94 ¼)  & Nov 3 ¼ cents lower ($13.80)

August Soybean Meal closed $6.0 lower ($362.7), Sept $6.2 lower ($362.2)  & Dec $7.0 lower ($363.8)

August Soybean Oil closed 109 pts higher ($67.31), Sept 113 pts higher ($65.90) & Dec 74 pts higher ($64.49)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 70.7 K T. old crop vs. -100+350 K T. expected – 290.8 K T. new crop vs. 200-600 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 70.7 K T. old crop vs. 125-350 K T. expected – 126.4 K T. new crop vs. 150-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – -0.9 K T. old crop vs. -3+15 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

So much for the soybean meal market carrying the ball two days in a row. Soybean oil gets an intra-day lift from a . disappointing NOPA crush figure. The amount of soybeans crushed was 7 M bu. less than expected. Needless to say soybean oil stocks came in lower than expected. The lack of soybeans crushed weighed on the old crop soybeans suggesting we could see another hike in the old crop carryout. Soybean meal exports within the NOPA crush data were mostly unchanged with the previous month and down 120 K T. from the previous year. Couple that with the lower than expected meal weekly export sales it was no wonder that this market failed to carry the ball for a second day in a row. Continued calls for hot & dry to develop next week and beyond adds underlying support to new crop soybeans.

November soybeans seem to be honoring the suspected interim resistance up against the $13.95 level. I wouldn’t be surprised if tomorrow starts out as another day of consolidation followed by some short covering at the close. For as disappointing the trade was in December meal today I still think we have some pretty decent short term technical support against the $360.0 level. December soybean oil honors the suspected resistance at the $65.00 level but I’m not seeing any signs of rejecting this level. Without the signs of rejection it suggests the potential for higher prices still exists.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/16

Nov Beans: $13.65 – $13.98

Dec Meal: $364.0 – $378.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.50 – $65.00

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