Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 26 ½ cents lower ($13.92 ¼), Sept 32 ½ cents lower ($13.23 ¾)  & Nov 33 ¾ cents lower ($13.19 ¾)

August Soybean Meal closed $9.4 lower ($347.8), Sept $8.9 lower ($347.5)  & Dec $9.9 lower ($349.7)

August Soybean Oil closed 135 pts lower ($63.27), Sept 126 pts lower ($62.45) & Dec 79 pts lower ($61.80)

As we enter the month of August its all about the weather; in this case the forecasts. This week will be dry with slowly rising temperatures. Next week much of the Midwest is called to be warm and wet (I’m not seeing this for the Dakotas and only part of Minnesota). It’s this forecast that was behind today’s sharp sell-off in the soybean complex. As long as this wet forecast stays consistent the soybean market will stay under pressure. The next question to be answered; will $13.00 hold the current break in November soybeans or will we move down to the $12.50 level. I would like to think $13.00 so as to not get the cart ahead of the horse but given the ease of today’s break I have to wonder. December soybean oil has a similar question; does $60.00 hold or do we move down to the $57.00 level. As of this writing I think the meal market has the least downside to it. $340.0 looks like it should be pretty good support for December meal. I can’t help but notice but it seems the lower the price of meal goes the stronger the basis gets. I can’t say that about soybeans or soybean oil.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/04

Nov Beans: $13.00 ($12.85)  – $13.35

Dec Meal: $347.0 ($342.0) – $356.0

Dec Soy Oil: $60.00 – $63.00

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