Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 11 ¼ cents higher ($14.03 ½), Sept 8 ¼ cents higher ($13.32)  & Nov 6 cents higher ($13.25 ¾)

August Soybean Meal closed $5.3 higher ($353.1), Sept $4.0 higher ($351.5)  & Dec $4.3 higher ($354.0)

August Soybean Oil closed 50 pts lower ($62.77), Sept 13 pts lower ($62.32) & Dec 26 pts lower ($61.54)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100 +100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-550 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 25-125 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +10 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

On Tuesday we traded a good portion next week’s wet forecast. Today I got the impression we were just marking time until next week. Weaker energy prices weighed on the bean oil market while soybean meal caught a minor bid from inter-market spreading. I’m not expecting much out of the weekly export sales report in the morning. Yesterday afternoon we saw the first publicized private soybean production estimate; 50.0 bpa leading to a crop size of 4.332 B bu. If the USDA adopted a number like this and left the July demand data unchanged it would lead to a carryout of just 83 M bu. That won’t happen. If the USDA does choose to trim the yield you can be sure they will also trim demand. They will either increase the old crop carryout and/or decrease the new crop demand if not both. I would be quite surprised if the USDA printed a new crop carryout projection any lower than what we are already looking at, 155 M bu.

As we move forward to the 12th I’m thinking November soybeans should hold the $12.90 level on the downside and the $13.65 level on the upside. We do have a Monday to Tuesday gap to fill; roughly $13.48 to $13.52.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/05

Nov Beans: $13.10 (?)  – $13.40

Dec Meal: $349.0 – $360.0

Dec Soy Oil: $60.00 – $63.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.