Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 3 cents higher ($13.76), Nov 3 ¼ cents higher  ($13.68 ¼) & Jan 3 cents higher ($13.72 ¼)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $1.8 higher ($359.4), Oct $2.0 higher ($358.7)  & Dec $2.1 higher ($362.5)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 43 pts lower ($63.29), Oct 36 pts lower ($63.00) & Dec 34 pts lower ($62.94)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. sold to Unknown – brings 8-day total to 1.843 M T.

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 277.6 K T. vs. 75-300 K T. expected

Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE (-3%) vs. 60% expected vs. % year ago – Blooming – 94% vs. 94% 5-year ave. – Setting Pods – 81% vs. 79% 5-year ave.

It was a continued firm trade for soybeans on Monday. Continued announced export sales, now for the 8th day in a row, brings the total to 1.843 M T. Couple this with the higher than expected weekly export sales last week and its no wonder the soybean market stays firm. Weekly export inspections favored the high side of expectations. The best strength of today’s session was seen during Sunday night while the day session was spent consolidating at slightly less firmer levels. The NOPA July monthly crush data came in nearly 4 M bu. less than expected while soybean oil stocks still came in higher that expected. The soybean meal export data stayed consistent with last month’s data. This led to a midday reversal in the oil/meal spreads; oil losing to the meal. Crop conditions are expected to run steady with one week ago.

If November beans can eclipse the $13.80 level something closer to $14.00-$14.10 can be expected. Even though I believe the national soybean yield will improve in the upcoming reports $13.00 is support for now. Soybean meal (Dec) is trying to advertise it may have gone low enough for now as it is banging up against a down trendline that has been working since mid-May. A conclusive close above last Thursday’s high, $366.6, would go far in suggesting the worst may be behind us. Dec bean oil registered a minor downside reversal today for the recent 5-day rally. $60.00 should be viewed as initial support. As I mentioned earlier the ProFarmer crop tour starts tomorrow. Yields will run the gambit from pretty good to pretty crummy (east to west).

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/17

Nov Beans: $13.60  – $13.80 ($13.91)

Dec Meal: $357.5 – $370.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.50 – $64.00 ($65.00)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.