Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 35 ¼ cents lower ($13.23), Nov 33 ¼ cents lower  ($13.20) & Jan 32 ¾ cents lower ($13.24 ½)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $6.1 lower ($351.5), Oct $6.4 lower ($350.4)  & Dec $6.7 lower ($353.6)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 133 pts lower ($60.60), Oct 149 pts lower ($60.05) & Dec 156 pts lower ($59.92)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 67.6 K T. old crop vs. -75 +200 K T. expected – 2.142 M T. new crop vs. 1.000-1.800 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 72.4 K T. old crop vs. 25-200 K T. expected – 104.6 K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 0.5 K T. old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – 0.1 K T. new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 263 K T. sold to China, 148.6 K T. sold to Mexico – brings 11-day total to 2.715 M T.

Despite continued daily export sale announcements and a stout looking weekly export sales report the soybean complex came unglued today. Yes, outside markets had a lot to do with today’s break but I’m also getting the impression the trade is beginning to think the national yield will be improving over the near term especially if the near term forecasted rains come to fruition. Soybean oil takes the biggest beating of the products as it not only succumbs to lower palm oil prices but lower energy prices as well. Soybean meal sags from the idea of a larger crop size as well as lower feed prices in general.

My idea of November soybeans maintaining a trading range of $13.00 to $14.00 appears to be in line for severe test after today’s activity. Failure to hold $13.00 will suggest $12.50. The recent rally from $13.09 to $13.79 (now in failure mode) suggests something closer to $12.40. Both soybean oil and soybean meal appear in line to do some additional downside probing as well. Earlier this week soybean meal tried to give us a buy signal and has failed miserably; something closer to $330.0 cannot be ruled out if the late June $347.0 low falls by the wayside (Dec). Given Dec bean oil’s close below the $60.00 level a move to $58.00 followed $56.00 is in the cards. One word of caution to go along with all of this pessimistic outlook – a good portion of this is contingent on beneficial moisture occurring as forecasted.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/20

Nov Beans: $13.10 – $13.35

Dec Meal: $349.0 – $359.0

Dec Soy Oil: $59.40 – $61.25

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