Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed ¼ cent higher ($12.94), Nov 2 cents higher  ($12.92 ¾) & Jan 2 ½ cents higher ($12.98 ¼)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $6.7 lower ($346.6), Oct $6.9 lower ($345.0) & Dec $7.2 lower ($347.7)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 176 pts higher ($59.25), Oct 190 pts higher ($58.66) & Dec 191 pts higher ($58.56)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 214.0 K T. vs. 100-350 K T. expected

Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 56% GE (-1%) vs. 56% expected vs. 69% year ago – Setting Pods – 88% vs. 87% 5-year ave – Dropping Leaves – 3% vs. 3% 5-year ave

Soybeans get caught between a rebounding soyoil market and sagging soybean meal market. Rains around the Midwest over the weekend were a lot of hit or miss favoring the western belt. Soyoil rallies from a rebounding palm market. Last week the palm market was lower on the idea of slowing exports; today it was rebounding of the idea of slowing production. Adding to today’s rally is the idea the EPA may have been a bit premature with their statements on Friday suggesting the lowering of bio-fuel mandates. Soybean meal hits the bricks from the idea of a slightly larger crop size and just steady to slow domestic demand.

As we move forward the trade will continue to tray and assess soybean crop size from recent rains as well as what rains are in the forecasts. It’s going to be hot this week for a good portion of the Midwest and rains will continue to be hit or miss. Soybean oil will continue to trade all over the map. The price action in soybean meal continues to leave a lot to be desired. We are currently knocking at the last June lows. After that there is a smattering of support at the $340.0 level followed by $325.0 to $330.0.  $12.50 was my bottom line for November soybeans. $12.77 ¼ was Friday’s low so I can’t expect much more downside.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/17

Nov Beans: $12.85  – $13.10

Dec Meal: $345.0 – $354.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.50 – $60.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.