Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 43 cents higher ($13.37), Nov 39 cents higher  ($13.31 ¾) & Jan 38 ½ cents higher ($13.36 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $8.3 higher ($354.9), Oct $7.8 higher ($352.8) & Dec $8.0 higher ($355.7)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 184 pts higher ($61.09), Oct 195 pts higher ($60.61) & Dec 199 pts higher ($60.55)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. to China

It’s not too often we see stout rallies out of the product markets at the same time but we did today. Soybean oil continued its rally from Monday on the coattails of the energy markets. Soybean meal catches a bid after being on the edge of despair; reversing Monday’s losses and then some. Slowing crush rates due to maintenance down time, some low river water problems in Argentina and India announcing they’re ready to import 1.2 M T. of GMO meal all worked together to provide today’s pop in meal prices. The combined rally in the products along with the continued easing in soybean conditions allowed the soybean to rally 40 plus cents during the day and maintaining a good portion of those gins through the close.

For as impressive as the rallies were today throughout the complex I have to question if this is the start of something new. My thought that today’s rally is reaction to last week’s sell-off. Yes. I believe we’re still in the process of making more soybeans but I will admit the rains that are in the forecast are hit and/or miss and the areas that miss out are falling victim to this week’s heat. For the near term I think the best approach is fading the shorter term inter-day extremes and not get caught up chasing these shorter term inter-day extremes.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/25

Nov Beans: $13.10  – $13.50

Dec Meal: $350.0 – $361.0

Dec Soy Oil: $58.75 – $62.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.