Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 54 ½ cents lower ($13.04 ¾), Nov 20 cents lower  ($13.03 ¼) & Jan 17 ½ cents lower ($13.09 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $6.6 lower ($347.6), Oct $5.4 lower ($345.0) & Dec $5.2 lower ($347.2)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 102 pts lower ($60.28), Oct 82 pts lower ($59.70) & Dec 73 pts lower ($59.61)

Soybean Crop Progress & Condition – 56% GE (unch) vs. 56% expected vs. 66% year ago – Setting Pods – 93% vs. 92% 5-year ave – Dropping Leaves – 9% vs. 5% 5-year ave

USDA Announces Soybean Export Sales – 256 K T. to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 377.3 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Like corn the soybean market tried to rally Sunday night but the selling that appeared later in the night and during the day squashed that attempt to rally. Nov beans broke nearly 40 cents from their nighttime high. Sept soybeans were really crushed ahead of tomorrow’s 1st Notice Day. At one point Sept beans were down 62 cents. How much of the Sept’s problems are due to the Gulf’s problems from the hurricane remain to be seen. I’ve seen mixed reports ranging from severe damage to possibly being operational by the end of the week. I do think a lot of the November selling is tied to the idea that recent rainfall across the Midwest is leading to better yields vs. what the USDA reported earlier this month. Soybean oil fell victim to lower palm prices and soybean meal continues to be a slug. December meal registered new lows, new low closes dating back to last December. Soybean meal continues to be a major weight around the soybean market’s neck.

From a technical perspective today’s price performance in both soybeans and soybean meal was really poor/bearish looking. November soybeans continues to advertise something closer to $12.50. The move in Dec meal suggests something closer to the $320-$330 level. I cannot say the same for soybean oil as it mostly matched Friday’s range but with a lower close. Soybean oil will continue to subject to the whims of the palm oil market as well as related energy considerations.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/31

Nov Beans: $12.90 ($12.75) – $13.15

Dec Meal: $344.0 – $351.0

Dec Soy Oil: $58.50 ($57.50) – $61.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.