Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 6 cents lower ($12.98 ¾), Nov 10 ¾ cents lower  ($12.92 ½) & Jan 9 ½ cents lower ($13.00 ¼)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($346.4), Oct $1.9 lower ($343.1) & Dec $1.6 lower ($345.6)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 92 pts lower ($59.36), Oct 81 pts lower ($58.89) & Dec 86 pts lower ($58.75)

Similar to the rationale behind the break in corn soybeans tumble for some of the very same reasons; stable crop ratings, no immediate weather threats, and the month end churn. At one point November soybeans were down 20 cents, Dec bean oil down 200 pts. Soybean meal never saw the selling seen in the bean and soyoil markets as inter-market spreading offered support. Adding to some of the bearishness are reports of slow selling out of Brazil regarding their new crop. I’m told 28% of their new crop has been pre-sold vs. 44% year ago. Despite what appears as a run of demand from China through the daily reporting system as of the 19th new crop soybean sales are running 6.8 M T. behind last year’s sales pace.

Given my idea that a good portion of today’s selling was tied to month end considerations and the end of the day short covering bounce it’s my thought we may have seen th worst of the downside for the near term at least until we see what the USDA has to say on the 10th. I don’t think there is much to the upside but more of a consolidating trade type trade. From a Dollar ($$$) standpoint its my thought that soybean oil has the greatest downside potential especially if its tied to the energy market. Soybean meal will still be pretty much of a non-performer but if bean oil is going to see further correction it will offer support to this market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/01

Nov Beans: $12.86 – $13.06

Dec Meal: $342.0 – $350.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.50 – $60.25

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