Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 14 ¼ cents lower ($12.68 ¾), Nov 15 cents lower ($12.77) & Jan 14 ½ cents lower ($12.86 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $3.6 lower ($337.3), Oct $3.3 lower ($334.8) & Dec $3.2 lower ($337.8)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 124 pts lower ($57.76), Oct 128 pts lower ($57.72) & Dec 124 pts lower ($57.76)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 68.0 K T. vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE (+1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 65% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 18% vs. 15% 5-year ave

Soybeans were firm for the Monday night session but gave it all back and more during the day session. At one point November beans were up almost 14 cents only to finish down 15 cents ½ cents off of the day’s low. The drag on the soybean market was noticeably lower soybean oil (in response to the lower crude oil market) and the meal market once again pumping out new lows for the current move. The sharply higher US Dollar and a weakening corn market added to the day session selling. Ideas continue that Friday’s production and demand update will feature slightly higher production data as well as slightly higher carryout data. Despite seeing rather often daily announcements selling soybeans cumulative weekly export sales are 6.4 M T. behind last year’s new crop pace. China continues to talk about poor crush margins inhibiting export purchases.

Given the price action of the past few days (upflagging) I remain with the idea that November soybeans continues to target the $12.50 level. December soybean meal’s price action continues to suggest $330.0-$325.0 as a near term target. The recent 7 week low for December soybean oil is $56.42 that will suffice as its near term target. Failure to hold there will suggest a run to $55.00. after that it would be free-fall status for another 300 pts.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/08

Nov Beans: $12.70 (?) – $12.90

Dec Meal: $334.0 (?) – $343.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.40 (?) – $58.75

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