Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($12.72 ½), Nov 1 ¾ cents lower ($12.84 ¾) & Jan 1 ¼ cents lower ($12.93 ½)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $2.7 higher ($344.7), Oct $2.0 higher ($341.5) & Dec $2.7 higher ($345.2)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 6 pts higher ($55.80), Oct 2 pts lower ($55.80) & Dec unchanged ($56.05)

USDA Announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. sold to Unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 105.3 K T. vs. 75-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Rating & Progress – 57% GE (unch) vs. 57% expected vs. 63% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 38% vs. 29% 5-year ave

Like corn the soybean market registers an inside day of Friday’s short covering rally. Prices started Sunday night with a firm bias but that did not last very long. Personally I think it’s all about harvest that’s just around the corner. Granted the weekly export inspections were no big deal but then again they have been no big deal for some time now.  The USDA continues to announce small parcels of soybeans sold via the daily reporting system but it’s hard to ignore the fact we are behind last year’s sales pace by 7.8 M T. Most will tell you Friday’s USDA report had a bearish tinge to it due to the build to both US and World ending stocks but in my opinion its hard to get too bearish on a 185 M Bu. US carryout especially when the market has broken over $1.00 a bu. in less than one month’s time.

Soybean meal was working hard today to sustain Friday’s rally. I have to think the slow pace of crush is most responsible. Soybean oil gave us a mixed performance today despite higher palm prices and energy prices. My guess is that this market is still in a liquidation mode from the spec sector. None of what the USDA had to say about soy products on Friday was not all that friendly.

Going forward it’s my thought soybean should continue to find support against the $12.50 level but once above $13.00 the sledding could get tough. Soybean meal will have to rely on technical considerations to sustain the current attempt to rally as in the past its been tough to sustain much more than a $15.0 bulge. I’m still looking at Dec bean oil trying to realize support against the $55.00 level as Friday’s low was $55.36. the “however” is that I’m not convinced the liquidation run in bean oil is over.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/14

Nov Beans: $12.70 – $13.00

Dec Meal: $340.0 – $350.0

Dec Soy Oil: $55.00 (?) – $57.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.