Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans expired 4 cents higher ($12.76 ½), Nov closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($12.82 ½) & Jan 1 ¾ cents higher ($12.91 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal expired $3.5 lower ($341.2), Oct closed $3.5 lower ($338.0) & Dec $3.4 lower ($341.8)

Sept Soybean Oil expired 88 pts higher ($56.68), Oct closed 94 pts higher ($56.74) & Dec 88 pts higher ($56.87)

Soybeans were firm in the overnight but struggled to sustain that strength during the day session. Soybean oil got a boost from the second day of palm oil strength and more importantly the continued downgrade of the Canadian canola crop. Stats Can reported the canola crop was lowered by 1.976 M T. vs. the August estimate. A downgrade of 1.1 M T. was expected. Although bean oil finished firm it was noticeably off of its daily high as sliding energy prices were responsible. Once again soybean meal could not sustain its recent two day rally and that acted as an additional drag on soybeans. It was reported China went to Brazil for some quick shipment soybeans as it seems the PNW is out of soybeans for now and the Gulf is not quite ready to ship.  I do think that once NOLA gets back to 75% of operational there will be a rush of activity hipping soybeans out. I’m told the quick shipment soybeans that China just purchased from Brazil are at season’s high prices.

As disappointing as today’s soybean trade was I don’t think November soybeans are going to fall apart. I’m still thinking $12.50 will be support well into October. IN the near term if we can get through last week’s high of $13.06 we should be able to see something closer to $13.20. Soybean meal barely tests short term resistance before it turned tail today. With that said a move to $330.0 remains in the cards. Soybean oil spikes up into resistance today but gives us a questionable close in terms has the liquidation run concluded. I’m still viewing $55.00 as initial support.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/15

Nov Beans: $12.70 – $12.95

Dec Meal: $336.0 – $346.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.00 – $57.50

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