Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents higher ($12.96), Jan 1 ¼ cents higher ($13.04 ¾) & March 1 cent higher ($13.08 ¾)

October Soybean Meal closed $4.3 higher ($340.2), Dec $4.5 higher ($344.1) & Jan $4.4 higher ($346.4)

October Soybean Oil closed 148 pts lower ($56.83), Dec 153 pts lower ($56.84) & Jan 147 pts lower ($56.90)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.264 M T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.400 M T. expected – 2.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 95.4 K T. old crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected – 42.4 K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – -1.6 K T. old crop vs. -5 +10 K T. expected – 6.1 K T. new crop vs. -5 +10 K T.  expected

USDA Announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. sold to China

It was a mixed trade for the soybean complex today. Wednesday night saw firm soybean prices while the day session brought us softer prices. Weekly export sales for soybeans were decent. We saw a “bounce back” from the USDA as they announced 2 new cargoes sold overnight offsetting some of the previous day’s cancellations (328 K T.).  If I didn’t know better I would say we had a delayed reaction to the NOPA data yesterday; bean oil data looked bearish while bean meal data looked bullish and that is how these two markets performed today. Longer term it would not surprise me to see meal gain on oil as one has to go back to 2011, early 2012 to find meal values this cheap relative to bean oil. I know bean oil has been getting a lot of support from the bio-diesel industry but from a technical long term perspective soybean meal looks cheap vs. soybean oil.

Last night we saw Nov beans challenge a two week high and get turned back. Today however did give us the best daily close we’ve seen in those two weeks. Soybean oil which has been the stalwart of the complex turned tail today while the meal worked hard to pick up the slack. If the meal market can continue to pick up whatever slack the bean oil market may create soybeans should be able to stay alive. For the time being my thought is that Nov beans will be a trading range affair ($12.70 to $13.20) as we approach the harvest period.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/17

Nov Beans: $12.80 – $13.10

Dec Meal: $340.0 – $348.0

Dec Soy Oil: $55.75 – $57.75

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