Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 21 ½ cents lower ($12.62 ½), Jan 21 ¼ cents lower ($12.71 ¾) & March 21 cents lower ($12.76 ¼)

October Soybean Meal closed $2.4 lower ($336.1), Dec $2.4 lower ($339.8) & Jan $2.0 lower ($342.4)

October Soybean Oil closed 138 pts lower ($54.91), Dec 139 pts lower ($54.87) & Jan 137 pts lower ($54.99)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 275.1 K T. vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (+1%) vs. 57% expected vs. 63% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 58% vs. 48% 5-year ave – Harvested – 6% vs. 5% expected vs. 6% 5-year ave

Psychological harvest pressure, lower outside markets, and a continued strong US Dollar kept the soy complex under pressure. Weekly soybean export inspections were deemed no big deal. Talk is planting is underway in southeastern Brazil (Parana & Rio Grande Do Sul) and is soon to start in earnest for the central and north central regions (Mato Grosso do Sul & Mato Grosso). Continued weakness in the soy product markets kept soybeans under wraps for the majority of the day’s session. November soybeans registered their lowest close dating back to mid-June. It was the same story for December soybean oil. Dec meal tries to hold its own vs. soybean oil while the flat price consolidates against recent lows.

The interior soybean basis is exhibiting harvest pressure. Not much is happening at the gulf since NOLA is slowly but surely re-opening. Soybean spreads stay depressed looking and product spreads aren’t any better.

$12.50 here we come (Nov Soybeans). Today’s close in Dec bean oil suggests a move down to the mid-June low (51.98). Granted Dec meal is trying to stand in against recent lows ($336.0) I still get the impression better support is down closer to the $330.0 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/21

Nov Beans: $12.53 – $12.78

Dec Meal: $336.0 – $345.0

Dec Soy Oil: $54.30 (?) – $56.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.