Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents higher ($12.84 ¼), Jan 2 ¼ cents higher ($12.94) & March 2 ¼ cents higher ($12.97 ½)

October Soybean Meal closed $1.3 lower ($336.6), Dec $1.7 lower ($340.1) & Jan $1.7 lower ($342.8)

October Soybean Oil closed 71 pts higher ($57.10), Dec 67 pts higher ($57.02) & Jan 67 pts higher ($57.11)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 902.9 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.100 M T. expected – 10.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 45.0 K T. old crop vs. 50-100 K T. expected – 216.4 K T. new crop vs. 25-175 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 4.3 K T. old crop vs. -10 +10 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

Soybean oil is once again the primary supportive market for soybeans. Soybean oil continues to firm on the coattails of palm oil as well as other veg oils. Soybean meal continues to get the short of the end stick. Soybean prices seemed stuck between the firm bean oil vs. the soft looking soybean meal. Soybean weekly export sales were okay vs. expectations. The trade had been expecting some daily announced sales to China since their return from a long weekend holiday on Wednesday but so far no announcements. The rumor mill suggests there were some purchases.

Planting in Brail has been happening in the south (Rio Grande do Sul and Parana) while further north (Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso) it seems they are waiting for better rains to develop. I’ve hear forecasts suggesting the anticipated rains will return by next week while other forecasts suggest not a lot until almost mid-October.

Interior cash markets for soybeans appear to be somewhat seasonal; soft going into harvest. The Gulf, however, is beginning to firm almost noticeably. Nov beans are soft to January while January is steady to March and May.

The near term technical look at November soybeans suggest a bias to grind higher. Tomorrow being Friday it would not surprise me to see some minor easing as we are entering a harvest weekend.  As we move closer to the October 12th production update it remains my thought November soybeans will continue to trade between $12.50 and $13.10. Currently we’re pretty much in the middle. For the time being it looks like soybean oil will continue to be the stalwart of the complex while meal stays as the weak sister.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/24

Nov Beans: $12.70 – $12.96

Dec Meal: $338.0 – $345.0

Dec Soy Oil: $55.50– $58.00

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