Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 2 ½ cents higher ($12.87 ½), Jan 2 ¾ cents higher ($12.97 ½) & March 5 cents higher ($13.02 ¾)

October Soybean Meal closed $1.2 higher ($337.3), Dec $1.0 higher ($340.0) & Jan $1.0 higher ($342.3)

October Soybean Oil closed 33 pts higher ($58.30), Dec 24 pts higher ($58.11) & Jan 26 pts higher ($58.17)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sale – 334 K T. sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 440.7 K T. vs. 150-500 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE (unch) vs. 58% expected vs. 64% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 75% vs. 66% 5-year ave – Harvested – 16% vs. 15% expected vs. 13% 5-year ave

Quietly firm best describes the soy complex on Monday. Initially soybean meal was the leader of the products then bean oil came on shrugging off the lower palm market choosing to trade with the higher energy markets. The initial strength in meal came from talk about China crushers cutting back on its operations due to power restrictions. This is a double edged sword – if they cut back on crushing its bearish for soybean imports but friendly to product imports. Normally China does not import soybean meal so these power restrictions just may be a game changer. Soybean got help from the announced export sale to China. The trade had been waiting for this announcement dating back to last Wednesday. The bounce back in the weekly export inspections added to the underlying support. Slowly but surely the NOLA Gulf is getting back to “normal”. Brazilian soybean planting is happening in its southern reaches while further north it appears they are waiting for better moisture. Forecasts suggests it is coming. The month of October is known for returning seasonal rain.

The interior cash soybean market appears to have stabilized from its recent weakness. The Gulf continues to have a firming bias vs. where it was one week ago. Soybean spreads continue to show a soft look as Nov loses fractionally to Jan while both Nov and Jan lose noticeably to March forward.

The price action in soybean meal keeps trying to suggest the market has gone low enough but when push comes to shove it just can’t give us that defining close of confirmation. The recent 5-day upflag in November soybeans is just that, an upflag within a longer term downtrend. $13.00 to $13.10 shows up as pivotal resistance. Soybean oil continues to trade with the energy rally and I see no reason why this should not continue. Dec bean oil shows some immediate resistance against $58.75 but much better against the $60.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 09/28

Nov Beans: $12.70 – $13.00

Dec Meal: $336.0 – $344.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.50– $59.50

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