Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 27 ¾ cents lower ($12.56), Jan 28 cents lower ($12.65 ½) & March 26 ½ cents lower ($12.72)

October Soybean Meal closed $11.9 lower ($326.2), Dec $12.5 lower ($328.7) & Jan $12.6 lower ($331.0)

October Soybean Oil closed 33 pts higher ($58.30), Dec 24 pts higher ($58.11) & Jan 26 pts higher ($58.17)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.093 M T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – 7.8 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 66.8 K T. old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – 162.9 K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 6.0 K T. old crop vs. -5 +10 K T. expected – 22.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Sept Soybean Quarterly Stocks – 256 M Bu. vs. 174 M expected

2020/21 US Soybean Production – 4.216 B bu. vs. 4.136 B expected vs. 4.135 B in August

The USDA increases last year’s soybean crop by 81 M bu. The soybean quarterly stocks figure comes in at 256 M bu., 82 M bu. higher than expected. This stocks figure basically sets last year’s carryout, this year’s carryin. The recent old crop carryout had been 175 million bu. so it looks like this figure will now be close to 256 M bu., just about the same size as the increase in production. Couple this with the onset of harvest and what appears to be yields as expected to better than expected had November beans near challenging ($12.49) the June low (12.40 ½) while managing to hold. Soybean meal was a major drag on soybeans (surprise, surprise) as it moved down to levels not seen since last November. Soybean oil did take a hit when the report first came out (225 pts off of the pre-report high) but managed to finish with decent gains on the day. Malaysian palm oil futures recorded all-time highs earlier in the day.

With one or two exceptions the interior soybean basis still looks rather sloppy/weak. Both Nov and Jan beans are losing to March forwards. Chinese demand is only so-so at best. Their call to slow things down due to energy curtailments is not good for their crush demand. It may however open the door for some better product demand further down the road.

The technical look at both soybeans and soybean meal is not too inspiring. Yes, November soybeans did hold their June low. For as ugly as the meal market looks it is now in area of support I’ve been waiting on for some time now. Soybean oil remains the stalwart of the complex due to the strength competing veg oils and energy prices. $60.00 is suspected immediate resistance for Dec bean oil.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 10/01

Nov Beans: $12.45 – $12.70

Dec Meal: $325.0 – $334.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.50– $60.00

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