Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($12.50 ½), Jan 14 ¾ cents higher ($12.61) & March 14 ¼ cents higher ($12.69 ½)

October Soybean Meal closed $1.9 lower ($320.2), Dec $2.4 lower ($321.2) & Jan $2.4 lower ($323.2)

October Soybean Oil closed 232 pts higher ($60.89), Dec 231 pts higher ($61.14) & Jan 224 pts higher ($60.95)

Surging higher soybean oil pulls soybeans out of their recent hole. Veg oils in general continue to be quite firm. Canada’s short canola crop and palm oil at new all time highs coupled with strong crude oil prices is the rationale for soybean oil surging through its suspected resistance at the $60.00 level. Today’s extreme strength in the soybean oil allowed soybeans to rally out of their recent hold despite soybean meal registering new lows for its current down move. I get the impression that US crushers are processing for soybean oil and that in turn creates excessive soybean meal stocks.

Interior cash soybean prices still are reflecting the ongoing harvest. I will admit the recent decline in basis levels appears to be leveling off. Recent strength at the Gulf appears to have come and gone.

Today’s price in November soybeans registers a noticeable reversal for the current down move; and outside day involving new lows and closing above the previous day’s high. Couple this with the strength in soybean oil (now targeting the $64.00 level) and I have to think Nov beans could easily test the $12.75-$12.80 level. Soybean meal continues to be the dog of the complex. One of these days oversold considerations should be good for a $10.00 rally.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 10/06

Nov Beans: $12.43 – $12.63

Dec Meal: $318.0 – $325.0

Dec Soy Oil: $60.50– $63.00

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