Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 8 ½ cents lower ($12.42), Jan 8 ½ cents lower ($12.52 ½) & March 8 ¼ cents lower ($12.61 ¼)

October Soybean Meal closed $1.4 higher ($321.6), Dec $1.5 higher ($322.7) & Jan $1.4 higher ($324.6)

October Soybean Oil closed 82 pts lower ($60.07), Dec 80 pts lower ($60.34) & Jan 74 pts lower ($60.21)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. -50 +100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -5 +10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected

Soybean oil has been the stalwart of the soybean complex. Today it took a hit from lower crude oil prices despite Palm oil registering new all time highs. Since soybean oil’s rally yesterday supported soybean prices today’s downturn weighed on soybean prices. Soybean meal caught some minor left-handed support from inter-market spreading but not enough to sway the soybean market from modest losses on the day. Tomorrow is export sales and I’m not expecting much as China has been on holiday for most of the week. China is due back from their near weeklong holiday – is it too much to expect a daily export sales announcement form the USDA given the break the market has seen since last week?

The interior soybean basis, like corn seems to be trying to stabilize. Again like corn the Gulf for soybeans appears to be on the defensive vs. the offensive. Soybean spreads rather steady to fractionally easier on the day. I can’t help but notice the meal basis is all over the p[lace depending on where one looks. The rail market is noticeably softer, the truck market steady, the CIF market steady to better and the FOB market steady to easier. Meal spreads were mostly steady/fractionally mixed.

So is yesterday’s suggested interim reversal in November soybean going to be any good? Closes over $12.55-$12.56 will say yes. It would be nice if the meal market could get off of its can as the price actin there still leaves a lot to be desired. Soybean oil shows room to retrace lower without violating the recent uptrend. Soybean oil will continue to be subject to the whims of the energy and palm markets.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/07

Nov Beans: $12.35 – $12.55

Dec Meal: $318.0 – $328.0

Dec Soy Oil: $59.50– $61.50

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