Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($12.47 ¼), Jan 5 ¾ cents higher ($12.58 ¼) & March 6 cents higher ($12.67 ¼)

October Soybean Meal closed $2.8 lower ($318.8), Dec $3.4 lower ($319.3) & Jan $3.2 lower ($321.4)

October Soybean Oil closed 183 pts higher ($61.90), Dec 172 pts higher ($62.06) & Jan 170 pts higher ($61.91)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.041 M T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 369.6 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 38.5 K T. old crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA Announces Soybean Export Sale – 261.2 K T. to Mexico

Soybean oil turns back higher influenced by the energy markets turning back higher. Palm oil took a bit of a breather in its recent sharp rise. Weekly export sales for soybeans were deemed solid as they favored the high side of expectations. The announced sale to Mexico didn’t hurt either. For the most part soybeans rebounding from early morning lows was all about soybean oil. Soybean meal had great looking week export sales but that fell on deaf ears as the meal market continues to sink. Talk continues in the country that soybean yields are better than expected.

Most interior cash soybean prices run steady to better. The Gulf appears to be steady to slightly better. Soybean spreads continue to show a widening bias.

On Tuesday I talked about November soybeans registering an interim reversal to the upside. The reversal remains valid. I’m thinking the soybean market will be able to stand in at least until Tuesday when we see what the USDA has to say about production and supply/demand. Standing in is probably the best the soybean market will be able to accomplish as most are expecting to see confirming bearish data from the USDA on Tuesday. Soybean oil will continue to trade from the influences of the palm and energy markets. Not sure what to say about the dismal meal market other than its starting to get oversold but its hard to argue with new lows and new low closes for a down trend that started back in mid-May (with only one hiccup in between).

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/08

Nov Beans: $12.35 – $12.55

Dec Meal: $316.0 – $324.0

Dec Soy Oil: $60.75 – $64.00

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