November Soybeans closed 21 ½ cents lower ($12.24), Jan 21 ½ cents lower ($12.33 ½) & March 20 ¾ cents lower ($12.43 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $4.4 lower ($324.0), Jan $4.2 lower ($323.1) & March $3.7 lower ($323.6)
December Soybean Oil closed 2.12 pts lower ($62.58), Jan 192pts lower ($62.15) & March 176 pts lower ($61.30)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 2.878 M T. old crop vs. 1.500-2.500 M T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 240.4 K T. old crop vs. 150-400 K T. expected – 6.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 3.0 K T. old crop vs. 4-25 K T. expected – 0.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Crude oil reverses lower and it takes veg oils along for the ride. The recent rally in bean oil has been fueled by rising energy prices so when that sector reversed bean oil did too. The weather/forecasts in Brazil remain conducive to timely planting. Soybean meal was ready for a correction after its recent $20.0 rally. Sky-high crush margins also some correcting today. The much talked about Chinese business midweek has yet to bring about any announcements. Harvest still reports exceptional yields in many areas. The other side of all this is soybean weekly export sales were better than expected.
Crush margins mandate the soybean processor stand in with his basis. River locations are noticeably lower. The Gulf has been easing in recent days. After firming last week soybean spreads are now back to an easing mode. Interesting to note that after the meal market rallied $20.0 the interior rail market received a noticeable boost today.
$12.50 turns back November soybeans just as $65.00 did for December soybean oil. Today’s trade lays credence to the idea that the recent soybean rally has been just an upflag within a major downtrend. We may have just seen the topside in a broad trading range for soybean oil; $55.00 to $65.00. Bio-diesel demand is not going to go away but it will fluctuate along with crude oil process. World veg oils remain extremely tight; this is not going to go away either. I’m still not sure what to do with soybean meal. The crushers are processing for bean oil and that in turn creates meal stocks (11-12 lbs of soybean oil vs. 46-48 lbs for every 60 lb. bu.)
Daily Support & in Resistance – 10/22
Nov Beans: $12.10 – $12.36
Dec Meal: $319.0 – $328.0
Dec Soy Oil: $61.00 – $63.70
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