November Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($12.39 ¼), Jan 2 ¼ cents higher ($12.49 ¾) & March 2 ¼ cents higher ($12.59)
December Soybean Meal closed $4.0 higher ($330.9), Jan $3.6 higher ($329.2) & March $3.4 higher ($329.9)
December Soybean Oil closed 89 pts lower ($61.42), Jan 73 pts lower ($61.26) & March 58 pts lower ($60.71)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.250-2.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-375 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
Soybeans try to run higher with the corn market but by day’s end it was all for naught as soybean prices finished 16-18 cents off of their intra-day highs. Soybean oil suffered from lower energy prices as well as a correction in palm prices. Soybean meal caught a noticeable bid from the unwinding of long bean oil/short soybean meal spreads. Board crush margins continue to correct from the $1.90 we saw two days ago. Weather conditions for Brazil remain conducive for timely planting.
Soybean processors continue to stand in with their basis levels due to the stout crush margins. River locations come marching back with harvest being halted due to excessively wet conditions. With the exception of the November contract (1st Notice Day on Friday) soybean spreads ran steady out to July. The interior meal basis stays firm and that is buoying the export basis higher. Meal spreads showed some improvement but the firmer basis’s impact was felt more in the higher flat price.
Maybe I’m missing something but it’s hard to imagine Jan beans much better than the $12.70-$12.75 level. Then again markets go higher (as well as lower) than we feel reasonable. If I’m wrong about the topside it will be closer to the $13.00 level. The price action in Dec soybean meal is trying to suggest it’s ready to test the resistance level at $338.0 to $340.0. After today’s price action the soybean oil market appears ready to do some downside support testing. Because the rally that started in mid-September started from the $55.00 level and ran all the way to $65.00 there is all sorts of staggered support levels on the way down. The most obvious would be the 50% retracement ($59.59). Weekly export sales will decide what direction soybeans have going from here. If you recall last week at this time the thought was China had been quite active buying soybeans yet daily announcements were lacking.
Daily Support & in Resistance – 10/28
Jan Beans: $12.30 – $12.60
Dec Meal: $326.0 – $338.0
Dec Soy Oil: $60.50 – $63.00
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