Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 1 cent higher ($12.36 ¾), Jan 1 cent lower ($12.48 ½) & March ¾ of a cent lower ($12.58 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $3.5  lower ($330.9), Jan $3.2 lower ($327.2) & March $2.6 lower ($328.8)

December Soybean Oil closed 70 pts higher ($61.97), Jan 64 pts higher ($61.69) & March 59 pts higher ($61.03)

USDA announces 132 K T. soybeans sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.272 M T. vs. 1.850-2.300 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop ProgressHarvested – 79% vs. 81% expected vs. 81% ave

Once again soybean get caught between sagging meal prices vs. firm bean oil prices. Soybean oil was able to fend off the bearish influences of a sagging palm oil market and go with the stronger energy market. Soybean meal caught its selling from the inter-market spread trade as well as lower Chinese prices. Soybeans saw excellent export inspections for the previous week but many in the trade are thinking that won’t last past mid-late January. The weather in Brazil remains conducive to timely planting. Agrural is suggesting we are looking at the second fastest planting rate ever for Brazil. If weather cooperates that suggests Brazilian soybeans will be ready for export by the third week of January. The USDA says the US crushed 164 M bu. of soybeans in September vs. trade ideas of 163.6 M bu.

Interior cash soybean basis bids from the processor continue to stand in. Board crush margins for December are at $1.69 and for January $1.50. River locations run mixed with their basis bids. The nearby time slot at the gulf jumps noticeably suggesting the recent Chinese announcements are for right now. Soybean spreads, January forward, ran fractionally mixed on the day. The interior meal basis stays strong yet meal spreads eased back from recent gains.

If were not for the gains in the wheat and corn markets today I would have had soybeans finishing noticeably lower today. The recent rally in Jan beans is flattening out suggesting we need new data to take the market higher. Next week the USDA will update production and Supply-Demand. My thought is that we’ll see higher production and a higher carryout. Nothing friendly about that data. Soybean meal prices show a similar price pattern. I’m not sure what to do with soybean oil other than fade short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 11/02

Jan Beans: $12.30 – $12.60

Dec Meal: $322.0 – $335.0

Dec Soy Oil: $61.00 – $63.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.