Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 12 ½ cents lower ($12.31 ½), Jan 12 cents lower ($12.44 ¼) & March 11 ¾ cents lower ($12.55 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $3.6 higher ($340.8), Jan $2.9 higher ($337.2) & March $1.5 higher ($336.7)

December Soybean Oil closed 96 pts lower ($61.03), Jan 93 pts lower ($60.74) & March 91 pts lower ($60.07)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-2.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

Soybean Meal is the soy complex leader for the 2nd day in a row. Inter-market spreading against soybean oil as well as strong cash market has this market probing what I think are pretty decent resistance levels. Soybean oil chose to follow the route of the crude oil market as it was sharply lower today. I have to think the weakness in the crude oil market far outweighed the strength that was seen in the palm oil market. With all of this said soybeans chose to follow the cue of the soybean oil market. Additionally, the anticipated resumption of harvest over the next couple days weighed on soybeans as did the story out of Brazil suggesting soybeans for the month of December can be had cheaper vs. US origin.

Interior cash soybean markets (basis) shows the processor standing in as crush margins continue to be excellent. River locations for soybeans are showing steady to easier basis levels suggesting an increase in movement. The gulf is showing steady bids yet higher offers at its midday posting. Soybean spreads, January forward, continue to show a widening bias; fractionally within the crip year and more noticeably vs. the new crop. AS I mentioned earlier offers to sell cash meal in the US interior continue to ratchet higher suggesting the rate of crush is not keeping up with the current demand. There has been a lot of talk recently about the slowdown in the rate of crush in China due to their recent power restraints and whether or not it will lead to importing meal. For what it is worth soybean meal on the Dalian exchange is at contract lows.

The other day January soybean were flirting with suspected resistance above the $12.60 level and now they have been turned away. January soybeans have the look they want to break down but I don’t think that happens until we see what the USDA has to say next Tuesday. Soybean meal is in a similar looking resistance area that January soybeans were looking at the other day but it has yet to be turned away. What will break the meal market is an increase in the rate of crush which can be advertised with a break in the Board crush margins. Soybean oil has the look it will continue to move lower with its eye on the $58.50 level. Trying to call for a significant move in bean oil has been a lesson in frustration as it either takes its cue from the energy markets and/or its rival veg oil markets. At this point in time I’ll take it 100 pts at a time.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 11/04

Jan Beans: $12.35 – $12.55

Dec Meal: $334.0 – $344.0

Dec Soy Oil: $60.00 – $62.00

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