Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($12.12 ¼), Jan 4 ¾ cents higher ($12.21 ½) & March 4 ¼ cents higher ($12.33 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $2.1 higher ($344.5), Jan $2.5 higher ($340.9) & March $1.5 higher ($339.0)

December Soybean Oil closed 67 pts higher ($59.14), Jan 65 pts higher ($58.98) & March 57 pts higher ($58.68)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 950 K – 1.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

Despite finishing modestly higher the soybean market still looks rather wishy-washy in my opinion. There is talk that China may have been an active buyer of US soybeans overnight but due to the federal holiday there were no daily announcements. The meal market continues to be the leader of the products as interior cash meal prices continue to stay strong. Soybean oil could not figure out what to do today as palm prices were lower and the US energy markets mixed.

The US processor still has the best basis out there. River locations feeding down the gulf remain slack looking. The midday Gulf posting shows stabilization after recent weakness. The Dec Board crush slips a bit while the Jan stays firm. November soybeans expire tomorrow and that may have skewed the Dec numbers. NOPA monthly crush ideas for October suggest a sharp rebound to 181.9 M bu. vs. 153.8 M bu. in September. As I mentioned earlier the interior meal basis stays strong and now I’m seeing bump higher at the Gulf. Despite this Dec loses marginally to the Jan which may be due to today being the last day of the fund roll. Jan forward meal spreads continue to strengthen.

So what does one do with a wishy-washy looking Jan bean chart; nothing. If the meal market continues to be a leader of the products the bias will be for higher soybean prices. Weekly export sales will be out in the morning and the trade is looking for a slight decline vs. one week ago when we saw 1.863 M T. We will also be looking for confirmation of the rumored Chinese buying. Dec meal still looks like it want to check out the $348.0-$350.0 resistance level. The Dec bean oil trade has turned wishy-washy looking along with the soybean market. My best approach here is to fade the short term inter-day extremes for short term trades.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 11/12

Jan Beans: $12.10 – $12.36

Dec Meal: $338.0 – $348.0

Dec Soy Oil: $58.00 – $60.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.