Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 24 ¼ cents lower ($12.17 ¼), March 25 ½ cents lower ($12.26 ½) & May 26 cents lower ($12.35 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.1 higher ($348.8), Jan $0.9 lower ($341.8) & March $0.3 lower ($341.1)

December Soybean Oil closed 315 pts lower ($55.11), Jan 307 pts lower ($55.21) & March 284 pts lower ($55.32)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. to Unknown

Soybeans and soybean oil come totally unglued on Tuesday. Soybean oil follows the crude oil market lower (fears of new lockdowns due to the new virus variant). Brazil announced they will keep their bio-diesel blending at 10%. Most were looking for something closer to 13%. This would suggest Brazil will have more soybean oil for export. I would hate think where soybeans would be if the meal market hadn’t stood in as it was the recipient of the unwinding of long soybean oil short soybean meal spreads.

The interior soybean basis runs minorly mixed on Tuesday. The gulf jumps noticeably for the last day of November but comes back down to earth for December. Soybean spreads run mixed within the current crop year; Jan gains on March and May while May forward widens. Old crop loses noticeably to the new crop. It is thought the US will become a big loser in the export market after January if the current weather scenario stays as good as it is for Brazil. Be aware that southern Brail and Argentina remain under the La Nina watch. If the La Nina weather scenario takes hold the aforementioned areas will be subject to dryness.

Its needless to say the soybean and soybean oil charts are ugly looking. March soybeans are targeting the next support level of $12.00. If you believe Jan soybean oil is a broad trading affair $54.00 should hold; if not then we look at $52.00. January meal shows staggered support from $340.0 down to $330.0. The cash meal markets in the US continue to be firm despite Board crush margins continuing to slip away. It was just two weeks ago the Jan Board crush topped at just over $2.00. Today it traded at the $1.32 level before bouncing 10 cents. Watch the weather in SA and outside markets for further near term direction. The short term inter-day charts read over sold throughout the complex.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/01

Jan Beans: $12.08 – $12.40

Jan Meal: $337.0 – $348.5

Jan Soy Oil: $54.25 – $57.25

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