Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 11 cents higher ($12.28 ¼), March 8 ½ cents higher ($12.35) & May 7 ¾ cents higher ($12.43)

December Soybean Meal closed $7.7 higher ($356.5), Jan $7.3 higher ($349.1) & March $5.6 higher ($346.7)

December Soybean Oil closed 6 pts lower ($55.05), Jan 3 pts lower ($55.18) & March 4 pts lower ($55.28)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 30-60 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected

Yesterday I talked about where would the soybean market be if it hadn’t been for the meal market standing in. Today the meal market was your leader within the complex for upside retracement. I think a lot of the buying came from the continued unwinding of long soybean oil short soybean meal inter-market spreads. Soybean oil continues to take its cue for the crude oil market and crude oil was struggling to sustain its overnight rally. The weather in Brazil continues to be conducive for good crop development. If the current weather pattern continues Brazil will have ample amounts of soybeans ready for export in the last half of January.

The interior cash soybean market continues to stand in from both the processor and the exporter. I’m told China was buying soybeans at the gulf overnight and from Brazil for January shipment. This helps explain the noticeable bull spreading from Jan to March. Cash soybean meal offers remain firm but I’m thinking the soybean processor is catching up with his crush as Board margins continue to stay under pressure.

As far as I’m concerned the upside in soybeans remains limited from both a technical perspective as well as a fundamental perspective. $12.40 starts resistance for January soybeans and it gets really thick up towards the mid-high 12.50’s. Export demand into January has been barely short of excellent but after that it becomes questionable. Soybean meal shows room to move up towards the mid-low $360’s but after that it becomes a rough road to hoe. Jan soybean oil still at shows support at $54.00 and then again $52.00. soybean oil will continue to be influenced by the energy markets and as of this writing that’s up in the air given what OPEC+ might do and the unknown around this new virus variant.

Daily Support & in Resistance – 12/02

Jan Beans: $12.10 – $12.45

Jan Meal: $343.5 – $356.5

Jan Soy Oil: $54.25 – $56.90

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