March Soybeans closed 34 ½ cents higher ($14.25 ¾), July 32 ¼ cents higher ($14.38 ¾) & November 15 ¾ cents higher ($13.20 ¼)
March Meal closed $8.2 higher ($398.3), July $6.5 higher ($395.3) & December $4.7 higher ($374.0)
March Bean Oil closed 168 pts higher ($60.76), July 160 pts higher ($60.51) & December 138 pts higher ($58.53)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales (01/13) – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales (01/13) – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales (01/13) – old crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans continue to zoom higher led by the soybean oil market. Soybean oil continues to get its impetus from the possibility of Indonesia curbing palm oil exports as well as a strong US crude oil market. Soybean meal goes along for the ride but to a much lesser extent when compared to soybeans or soybean oil. The weather in Argentina appears to have stopped the bleeding on crop losses and I hear south-southeastern Brazil is next. It’s still pretty hot in Parana and RGDS but there are showers leaking in and forecasters are suggesting the heat will break by next week with better moisture potential. Underlying all of this its my opinion that the soybean market has been the recipient of a fair amount of inflation hedge type buying. I can remember back to the late 70’s\, early 80’s when this type of buying was common.
The interior soybean basis has taken on a mixed look today. Selected river locations appear to be a bit easier while processors continue to stand in. That’s the way it has been for the past number of days; river locations easing and processors standing tall. The nearby Gulf basis continues edge higher touting weather related logistical issues and spot demand that has yet to recede. Be it known that the February and March time slots at the Gulf are nowhere near as strong. Bull spreads work like gangbusters within the soybean price structure. Interior offers to sell cash meal continue to show a steady to easier stance. The Gulf basis for meal is fully steady. March meal loses to May while May forward has a definite bullish bias.
The bleeding has stopped in Argentine crop losses and better relief is on the way for south-southeastern Brazil; this is the bearish aspect of the market. Inflation hedge type buying is pushing the soybean market higher. Given the run over the past two days, 66 cents low to high, and tomorrow being Friday it would not surprise me to see some profit taking or at least some consolidation. This holds true for the soybean oil market as well. Since soybean meal has been the weak sister of the complex these past few days, I must think that will continue.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/21
March Beans: $14.05 – $14.35 ($14.45)
March Meal: $393.0 – $408.0
March Bn Oil: $61.00 – $63.30($64.00)
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