March Soybeans closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($14.03), July 13 ¼ cents lower ($14.14) & November 8 ¾ cents lower ($13.07 ½)
March Meal closed $1.2 higher ($393.9), July $0.1 lower ($391.6) & December $0.9 lower ($369.5)
March Bean Oil closed 103 pts lower ($61.97), July 104 pts lower ($61.72) & December 73 pts lower ($59.46)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sale – 132 K T. to China (66 K T. old crop, 66 K T. new crop)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.297 M T. vs. 1.200-1.900 M T. expected
The soybean complex had something for everyone Sunday night, Monday. Soybean literally traded all over the place despite finishing modestly lower. Soybean oil was firm early getting its impetus from the strong palm market but then profit taking set in. soybean meal saw a similar performance but was able to garner some left-handed support from the declining bean oil market. Soybeans saw a bearish influence from beneficial forecasts for SA as well as some “risk off” early in the day session. Prices were able to stabilize later in the day as we did see decent weekly export inspections.
The interior soybean basis is showing some easiness at selected river locations that lead down the Gulf. Processors continue to stand in. The Gulf soybean basis looked ill-defined at midday. Soybean spreads tightened from March to May to July but after that they were adding carry to the price structure especially old to new. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior run steady to softer while export values continue to stand in. Meal spreads showed a bullish bias upfront while the old crop/new crop spreads showed some fractional tightening.
After today’s price action I’m thinking soybeans are moving into a consolidation affair with a very slight upside bias. SA weather will dictate just how much upside or how much downside. Soybean oil is a very broad trading affair, $64.00 down to $54.00. For the near term I think soybean meal still has some additional downside, something closer to the $380.0 level. The topside should be limited to the $410.0 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/25
March Beans: $13.90 – $14.18
March Meal: $389.0 – $398.5
March Bn Oil: $60.90 – $62.90
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