Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans expired 26 ¾ cents higher (8.17 ¾), July closed 29 cents higher ($8.31 ½) & Nov 29 cents higher ($8.56 ½)

May Soybean Meal expired $10.0 higher ($294.0), July closed 10.7 higher ($298.0) & Dec $10.1 higher ($305.6)

May Soybean Oil expired 38 pts higher ($26.73), July closed 39 pts higher ($27.00) & Dec 36 pts higher ($27.70)

USDA announces 180 K T. old crop soybeans sold to unknown

Informa (IEG Vantage) suggests soybean planted acres at 86.4 million vs. USDA at 84.6 million – Yield at 51.2 bpa vs. 49.5 USDA

Okay – soybean planting remains slower than normal but we have lots of time to make up ground. Despite this spec shorts in the soybean and soybean meal markets went screaming for cover Monday night, Tuesday. It seems the trade chose to hang on the WH’s words that the soybean farmer would be taken care of. The WH is now saying trade talks have not broken down; the two sides are just having a squabble. I have not heard of any new meetings being scheduled just the two leaders meeting at the G20 summit at the end of June. Analytical groups that have been touting lower corn acres have gone the other way with soybean acres. The old Informa group actually touted a higher yield vs. what the USDA had on Friday.

The interior soybean basis reads better at selected interior river locations as well as at Burns Harbor. Not that our demand for soybeans is that great the opening of the riverways allows for some bidding. Soybean processors run steady to better as crush margins continue quite good despite today’s minor downturn. The Gulf basis for soybeans remains nothing to write home about. Soybean spreads ran steady within the old crop. Old crop gains on the 2020 months.

Both old crop and new crop soybeans fell just a few cents shy of filling the gap that was created that was created two weekends ago. It will be interesting to see if the spec short covering gets tempered a bit once these gaps are filled. If the short covering continues July beans will be looking at the mid-$8.60’s and November at the mid-high $8.80’s. From a technical point of view July should start realizing some resistance from $305.0 to $310.0. July bean oil can easily rally to the $28.00 level before experiencing any type of technical resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/15

July Soybeans: $8.15 – $8.45 (?)

July Soybean Meal: $292.0 – 303.0

July Soybean Oil: $26.55 – $27.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.