Sept Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents lower ($8.25 ½), Nov 6 ¼ cents lower ($8.38) & March 6 ¼ cents lower ($8.63 ½)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $2.1 lower ($306.2), Oct $1.9 lower ($307.3) & Dec $1.5 lower ($309.7)
Sept Soybean Oil Closed 21 pts lower ($28.18), Oct 22 pts lower ($28.31) & Dec 22 pts lower ($28.56)
It appears the trade is having second thoughts as to the amounts of rain we’ll see this week since Tropical Storm Gordon made landfall further east vs. what had been anticipated. Yes, there are areas out there that are significantly wet but forecasts going forward, Next week and beyond, are for a much drier pattern. Despite these wet areas the US crop is still considered to be quite large and not enough business to offset. How does one trade a soybean market when the projected carryout could easily wind up with a “9” in front of it?
Interior cash soybean markets remain ugly despite some selected river locations bumping their bids higher from recent lows. The bottomline is that cash soybean bids are nothing short of horrendous. As far as the Gulf is concerned I’m not sure I’ve ever seen bids as low as they are currently. Soybean spreads ran fairly flat on the day while still being wide. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain quiet whether it’s for domestic use or for export. Meal spreads gave back what they gained on Tuesday. Overall meal spreads remain wide right along with the soybean spreads.
Unless we see some sort of a godsend in the near term the recent attempts by the complex to rally seem like rallies in a bear market. Crush margins remain strong suggesting good crusher demand going forward but without better export it will be very difficult to offset what I think is a monster crop size.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/06
Nov Soybeans: $8.32 (?) – $8.55
Dec Soybean Meal: $306.0 (?) – $316.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.25 – $28.90
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