Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 6 cents lower ($8.39), March 5 ½ cents lower ($8.65 ½) & July 5 ¼ cents lower ($8.91 ¼)

Dec Soybean Meal closed $0.9 higher ($308.2), March $0.3 lower ($310.5) & July $0.9 lower ($311.7)

Dec Soybean Oil closed 27 pts lower ($27.89), March 27 pts lower ($28.38) & July 26 pts lower ($28.95)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.304 M T. vs. 650 K – 1.150 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Harvested – 72% vs. 70% expected vs. 81% 5-year average

USDA announces 120.0 K T. of soybeans sold top unknown

Despite the 2nd day in a row for an export sales announcement soybeans could not sustain its attempted rally early Sunday night. Soybeans registered an outside day of the two previous days and in doing so recorded a new low for the interim sell-off that started on October 18th. The soybean market also registered a new low interim close dating back to September 19th. First notice day for November soybeans is Wednesday. As of this writing I don’t see anyone pressing the issue for ownership. At the end of November the US and China will sit down and try to iron out their differences. It seems both sides are content to play hardball with one another for the current time frame. The meal market tries to poke its nose up mostly noticeably in its spreads. It’s either a crush slow down or somebody smells some business.Bean oil continues to grind lower suggesting next stop is the $27.50 level.

The Ohio River continues to improve its soybean basis while Burns Harbor continues to see its basis widen. All other interior soybean basis locations run unchanged. Is the receding Burns Harbor basis advertising big delivery on Wednesday? Overall soybean spreads continue to be wide. Offers to sell cash meal, both for domestic usage and for export continue to advertise they are looking for buyers. Despite this nearby meal spreads poked their noses up on Monday. If I had to guess there may be some business in the wings.

The price action in both soybeans and soybean oil leave a lot to be desired. For as ugly as they look I don’t see new contract lows. The September lows may get challenged but for the time being they should hold. As long as soybean meal continues to honor the low $300.0 level I doubt the soybean market will see new lows. I wish I could offer something a bit more encouraging but then I would be lying to you. Like corn soybean volatility indicators read relatively low suggesting the soybean market is going nowhere fast despite its bearish looking appearance.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/30

Jan Soybeans: $8.45 – $8.62

Dec Soybean Meal: $305.0 – $312.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.60 – $28.30

 

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