Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.67 ¾), March 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.92 ¼) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($9.18 ½)

Dec Soybean Meal closed $3.4 lower ($308.0), March $2.0 lower ($312.0) & July $1.2 lower ($316.2)

Dec Soybean Oil closed 30 pts higher ($28.20), March 30 pts higher ($28.69) & July 30 pts higher ($29.28)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Soybeans and soybean sag quietly on the day. I have to think this is about a higher old crop carryin in regards to soybean meal and fear that the USDA will start cutting export demand due to the ongoing US/China trade conflict. My thought on the US/China conflict is that the USDA may hold off until they see the results of the G-20 summit at the end of the month. Bean oil gets some left-handed support from the unwinding of the long meal/short bean oil spreads as well as the idea of a lower old crop carryin. For what it is worth the trade is expecting to see the soybean yield come down 0.2 bpa, harvested to decline by 45 K, production to decline by 13 million bu. and the carryout to increase by 13 million bu. The World carryout is expected to increase by 870 K T.

The interior cash soybean market reads steady to higher as river bids are showing the best strength. Similar to corn cash soybean movement has not been that great and freight has gotten cheap. What is not similar to corn are the soybean spreads as they stay wide if not widening. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to look for buyers and the recent spread action suggests they are not finding any. For the last few months processors have been crushing their brains out and now it appears the product is backing up on them.

The Jan soybean chart suggests we are downflagging after last week’s sharp rally. the best looking congestive type support does not come into play until the mid-low $8.50’s. The bigger picture is a broad $1.00 range between $8.30 and $9.30. The soybean meal chart also has a downflagging look coming off of last week’s sharp rally. Make it or break support for nearby meal continues to be the $300.0 level. There is some minor interim support ranging from $305.0 to $302.0. Bean oil appears to be in a holding pattern just above the $27.50 level. I’m not sure the USDA can give us anything sustaining a rally as it all comes down to the US/China trade rift; will they find an accord or not?

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/08

Jan Soybeans: $8.55 – $9.20

Dec Soybean Meal: $302.0 (?) – $320.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $27.50 – $29.00


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