Jan Soybeans closed 12 ¼ cents higher ($8.94 ¾), March 12 cents higher ($9.07) & July 11 cents higher ($9.31 ¼)
Jan Soybean Meal closed $4.8 higher ($311.0), March $5.0 higher ($314.9) & July $5.0 higher ($321.6)
Jan Soybean Oil closed 35 pts higher ($27.90), March 33 pts higher ($28.18) & July 33 pts higher ($28.71)
Wishing and hoping for better soybean business with the Chinese returns to the soybean complex. Thoughts are we could see another announcement by the end of this week. It should be noted that with the USDA being shut down due to the Congressional impasse we will not get any announcements. We’ll have to rely on the “privates” and/or bumps higher in the cash export market. Adding to today’s rally are ideas that the Brazilian soybean crop is shrinking oh so slightly. It wasn’t that long ago some were trying to suggest the Brazilian soybean crop would challenge 130.0 M T. (I never got past 125.0 M T.). Ideas now are running right around the 120.0 M T. mark give or take 1.0 M T. the last update from the USDA was 122.0 M T.; the last from CONAB was 120.6 M T. It is my understanding that CONAB will update their production ideas on either the 10th or the 11th of this month.
So far interior basis rolling is being down anywhere from 10 cents under to 13 cents under. If there is a bias to the interior soybean basis it is better as movement has shut down. The Gulf basis has been pretty steady for the past number of days. The Gulf basis rolled from Jan to March suggesting a 10-11 cent spread. Government checks have stopped coming and that has a lot to do with the slowing down of cash soybean movement. Soybean spreads came in a bit with the fund buying. I have to think that if we don’t get some sort of an indication of resumed Chinese buying spreads will widen back out.
Weekly soybean charts suggest a lower bias. Daily soybean charts are trying to suggest a higher bias. Add them together and it would suggest a rally in a bear market. Weekly soybean meal charts read sideways. The daily soybean meal charts are trying to read higher. Weekly soybean oil charts read sideways to lower while the respective daily soybean oil charts are trying to read higher. Failure to see a better indication of Chinese buying overnight should have the complex giving back some of today’s rally.
Daily Support & Resistance for 01/03
Mch Soybeans: $8.95 – $9.20
Mch Soybean Meal: $311.0 – 318.5
Mch Soybean Oil: $27.80 – $28.60
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