Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($5.26), May ½ cent lower ($5.28 ¾) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($5.32 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($5.09 ¼), May 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.14 ¾) & July ¾ cent higher ($5.22 ¼)

Wheat prices try to extend the current run higher but run into problems prompted by a short term technical overbought. The recent spread strength also saw some minor correction from index fund rolling (today I believe was the first day). New news remains scant. The wishing and hoping for better business continues. Recent strength in US cash markets and strong Black Sea prices are the catalysts for the recent enthusiasm.

No changes are seen in the interior cash wheat markets. Both the SRW and HRW markets are firm with HRW showing the best strength. Export prices too show a firm bias. Today’s corrective action in the intra-market spreads was just that; just a correction in response to the recent sharp run-up.

It still bothers me that KC flat price continues to lose to Chgo’s flat price. That tells me the spec is driving the Chgo market. Today’s inability to follow through when new interim highs were seen suggests you still can’t chase inter-day extremes and get away with it. Like the rest of the Ag markets we wait and see what the USDA has to say on Friday. The drivers of those reports will be new crop winter acres and world carryout. I don’t see the domestic supply being much of an issue.  

Daily Support & Resistance for 02/07

Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.20 – $5.30  

Mch KC Wheat: $5.02 – $5.12

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