Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($4.81 ¼), Sept 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.85 ¾) & Dec 4 ¾ cent lower ($4.94)

July KC Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.31 ¼), Sept 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.39 ¾) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.52 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($5.16 ¼), Sept ½ cent higher ($5.24 ¼) & Dec 1 cent higher ($5.36)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-650 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Today’s rebound in the US Dollar, continuing US harvest and soft looking global prices all worked together to stall the recent attempt at upside retracement. The Bloomberg news wire survey of the upcoming USDA Acreage and Stocks report suggests we may see a slight boost in “all” wheat acres of 60 K while a drop in spring acres of 100 K. If true it would suggest slightly higher winter acres. The Stocks report is estimated at 987 million bu. which suggests a slight increase from the June carryout.

I’m not seeing any changes with the SRW interior basis. The Gulf for SRW is unchanged as well but with a soft tone. Spreads ran mixed in Chgo; July gains slightly on Sept while Sept loses to its forward contracts. The interior HRW basis continues to have a soft look while the Gulf is steady but with a firm undertone. KC spreads were steady upfront but softened as one went forward. Since July represents the first new crop month deliveries will be interesting. Movement from the producer has been slow other than previously contracted sales. Yields have been better than expected while protein has been appearing as questionable.

Wheat charts are advertising consolidation at its recent lower end. Chgo charts resemble an upflagging formation (bearish) while KC charts are still honoring its suggested upside reversal from the other day. I still think wheat prices are deserving of some technical upside retracement but as of this writing I’m willing to be patient.

Daily Support & Resistance – 6/25

July Chgo Wheat: $4.75 – $4.86

July KC Wheat: $4.25 – $4.36

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