Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 624.2 K T. vs. 350-550 K T. expected

USDA US Winter Wheat – Harvested – 68% vs. 70% expected vs. 66% 5-year averaged

USDA says US Spring Wheat now rated 68% GE (-2%) vs. 70% expected vs. % year ago – Headed – 80% vs. 85% 5-year average

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

Wheat futures tried mightily to divorce itself from the bearishness in the corn and soy markets but it in the end it couldn’t do it. Global production and projected carryout without China is still the highest vs. the past couple of years. I find it interesting to see Egypt announcing another optional origin tender after the first break vs. the recent 3-day rally. It makes me think they feel the EU and Black Sea will continue to shrink. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers they receive vs. their recent tenders. The average price they paid for the past 4 tenders was about $221.28 per ton C&F.

Chart Talk – September Chgo Wheat – resistance appears to begin at the mid-low $5.40’s. Given the sharpness of last week’s rally the best looking support is down towards the $5.00 level. I think the trade still wants to be long wheat vs. corn so attempts to sell off may come in a downflagging type formation. September KC Wheat – this chart never saw the sharp advance that Chgo saw so suspected technical support begins just another 10 cents lower. Its my thought the KC market is more reflective of the more than ample supply and without the emotion that that occurs in the Chgo market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 7/14

Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.15 – $5.33

Sept KC Wheat: $4.40 – $4.58

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.