Sept Chgo Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($5.01 ¼), Dec 9 ¼ cents lower ($5.08 ¼) & March 9 ¾ cents lower ($5.16 ½)
Sept KC Wheat closed 9 ¼ cents lower ($4.17 ¼), Dec 9 cents lower ($4.28 ¼) & March 8 ½ cents lower ($4.39 ¾)
Sept Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($4.96), Dec 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.10 ¾) & March 5 cents lower ($5.25 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 605.5 K T. old crop vs. 200-800 K T. expected – 5.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected
The idea of more than an ample global supplies coupled with US origin continuing to be uncompetitive in the world’s export circles continues to weigh on prices. The Chgo market saw a brief flurry of buying at export sales time when it was noted that China had bought 85 K T. (55 K T. SRW, 30 K T. HRS) but shortly after the re-opening new lows for the day were registered. In addition to the flat price selling we have also seen a fair amount of inter-market spread liquidation involving long wheat.
I’m not seeing any noticeable changes with the interior wheat basis or for that matter at the Gulf either. The interior basis continues to show a weak bias for both SRW and HRW. The Gulf has been pretty much a non-event for some time now. Chgo spreads ran fractionally mixed out to May’21. Despite the recent drop in prices Chgo and KC spreads have been trying to stabilize.
“Hard” variety futures continue to move into new low territory with few signs of trying to realize support. Maybe some short covering tomorrow just because its Friday. Chgo Sept should try and realize some technical support once it gets below the $5.00 level. Back in early July we saw some interim basing action from $5.00 down to $4.90. Getting beat on for most of the week why not see some short covering just because its Friday??
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/07
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.97 – $5.12
Sept KC Wheat: $4.12 (?) – $4.27
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