Sept Chgo Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($4.91), Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.99 ¾) & March 4 ½ cents lower ($5.07 ¼)
Sept KC Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($4.14), Dec 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.26) & March 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.37)
Sept Mpls Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.90 ¾), Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($5.07) & March 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.21 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 379.9 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected
US Winter Wheat – Harvested – 90% vs. 91% expected vs. 93% 5-year average
US Spring Wheat – 69% GE (-4%) vs. 73% expected vs. % year ago – Harvested – 15% vs. 14% expected vs. 25% 5-year average
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – last Wednesday they bought 410 K T. & the week before 470 K T.
The Russian Ag consultancy, IKAR, once again increases the size of the Russian wheat crop, now 81.0 M T. vs. the July USDA estimate of 76.5 M T. Couple this with the feeble looking weekly US export inspections and there was nowhere to go but once again grinding lower.
Most interior cash wheat markets read steady to easier. The gulf doesn’t do much but if I had to give it a tone it too reads steady to easier. Chgo spreads saw some index fund rolling out of the Sept and into the Dec. After that spreads ran steady. Sept KC loses fractionally to Dec and then spreads went unchanged here as well.
Flat price Chgo wheat is in technical support. Everybody and their neighbor is expecting to see bearish looking global supply from the USDA on Wednesday. I’m not sure what can be said about the KC and Mpls flat price as they both continue to favor new contract lows. Am I being naïve to suggest some modest short covering ahead of Wednesday’s data?
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/11
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.86 – $5.01
Sept KC Wheat: $4.08 (?) – $4.25
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