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Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 6 ½ cents higher ($5.27 ¼), Dec 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.35 ½) & March 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.43)

Sept KC Wheat closed 9 cents higher ($4.44 ¼), Dec 9 ¼ cents higher ($4.55 ½) & March 9 ¾ cents higher ($4.66 ¼)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 11 cents higher ($5.16 ½), Dec 10 ¼ cents higher ($5.30 ¼) & March 10 ¼ cents higher ($5.41 ½)

Wheat futures recover all of Monday’s losses due to a fair amount of world wheat business happening. Overnight Egypt buys 530 K T. of Russian wheat in two separate deals. It looks like Egypt paid $5.00-$6.00 per ton higher vs. the 415 K T. they bought 1 ½ weeks ago. In addition to the Egyptian business I’m told Turkey, Japan, Taiwan, and Jordan are all looking to buy. Last week Pakistan bought 400 K T. and I’m told they are looking for more as their original tender was for 1.5 M T. During the day the rally eclipsed yesterday’s highs before slipping back into the close.

Advertised interior basis levels for both HRW and SRW remain quiet. This holds true for the Gulf markets as well. Sept Chgo loses to the Dec ahead of Friday’s 1st Notice Day. Dec forward spreads ran steady to firm. KC spreads showed a fractional widening bias.

The stair stepping higher continues. As much as I think prices are in resistance every time the market sells off it comes right back. I cannot and will not chase the rally but continue to fade short term extremes for short term trading opportunities. For those of you that have been supporting the rally I don’t think you want to see closes below yesterday’s lows. This holds true for both the KC and Chgo markets.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/26

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.25 – $5.45 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.45 – $4.64

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.