Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½  cents higher ($5.42 ½), Dec 11 cents higher ($5.50 ¾) & March 10 ½ cents higher ($5.57 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 10 ½ cents higher ($4.60 ¾), Dec 11 cents higher ($4.72 ¼) & March 11 cents higher ($4.82 ¾)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher ($5.22 ¾), Dec 7 ½ cents higher ($5.40 ½) & March 8 cents higher ($5.52)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 764.1 K T. old crop vs. 400-700 K T. expected – 11.9 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Solid weekly export sales of wheat featuring some Chinese business started the day’s rally. Giving the market that extra added boost was the report of sharply higher overseas prices. It was just the other day it was reported that there was a great deal of global business happening. Any interested importers waiting for lower prices were forced to come to the market all at once.

Advertised basis levels for interior cash wheat run unchanged as do Gulf values.  Both Sept Chgo and Sept KC ease to the Dec ahead of 1st Notice day. Dec forward spreads are showing a tightening bias reflecting the better looking US export business as well as the flat price buying.

Dec Chgo wheat is now within a couple of cents of its mid-July high. Dec KC has eclipsed its July high by a couple of cents. These two markets are only showing a minor degree of overbought on their respective daily charts while the shorter term inter-day charts are flashing waring signs about chasing the rally. I have to think that further strength without some sort of correction can be faded for a short term trading opportunity.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/28

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.41 – $5.56 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.65 – $4.79

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.