Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($5.43 ¼), Dec 5 cents lower ($5.53 ¼) & March 5 cents lower ($5.61 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.75), Dec 3 ½ cents lower ($4.75 ¾) & March 3 ¼ cents lower ($4.87)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed unchanged ($5.25 ¼), Dec ½ cent lower ($5.47) & March ½ cent higher ($5.60 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 585.4 K T. old crop vs. 350-600 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Egypt buys 55 K T. Russian origin – paid $12 T. higher vs. August 25th purchases

For the past few days the wheat trade had been talking about Chinese interest. The decent looking weekly export sales featured 250 K T. sold to China yet failed to spark a rally. I think the bigger issue at hand was Egypt’s unwillingness to pay $12 T. higher for Russian wheat vs. what they bought on the 25th. They did buy 55 K T. their smallest purchase to date. Adding to the day’s pessimism was beneficial rains falling over some of the drought stricken wheat areas of Argentina.

Interior basis levels for standard protein wheat continue to be quiet. The recent improvement in the HRW basis at the Gulf is holding its own. Not much happens with the SRW basis at the Gulf. Chgo spreads were steady upfront, gaining on the 21/22 crop year. KC spreads, Dec/March lost a quarter cent but gained on May forward. I’m told insurance prices will be set soon for the new crop and they are noticeably better vs. last year’s which may lead to more acres bucking the recent trend of reduced acres over the past number of years.

December Chgo wheat looks like it is  trying to advertise the recent rally may be coming to an end. Closes below $5.47 looks like it may be setting itself up as a jumping off spot for recent purchases. A similar spot or Dec KC wheat is a close below $4.68.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/04

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.48 – $5.62 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.68 – $4.84

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