Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 6 cents higher ($5.40), Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($5.48 ¼) & March 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.57 ¼)

Sept KC Wheat closed 3 cents higher ($4.76 ¼), Dec 3 cents higher ($4.74) & March 3 cents higher ($4.85)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 3 cents higher ($5.17), Dec unchanged ($5.35 ½) & March ½ cent lower ($5.48 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Wheat futures surge early in the session on reports of renewed global business. Saudi Arabia announced a tender for 700 K T. Black Sea prices remain firm and European prices went along for the ride. Tomorrow’s USDA is not expected to show much change for the US domestic data; just an update to demand. If the demand numbers change I’m thinking it will favor better HRW vs. SRW. The USDA will not update US production until the end of the month. Tomorrow’s focus will be on world production. Russia’s production is expected to increase, Argentina may decrease while Australia’s may increase. Canadian production is expected to see a slight increase. If the EU production sees another decline it will be slight. If I add it all together I would expect a slight increase in World production.

The interior SRW basis looks steady to easier while the interior HRW basis reads steady to better. The SRW basis at the Gulf doesn’t do much while the HRW basis for export is moving higher. Not much happened with the spreads in both Chgo and KC.

$5.40 is support for Dec Chgo wheat while resistance is $5.70. $4.60 shows up as support for Dec KC while resistance shows at $4.90. Try not to get caught up in the middle.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/11

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.38 – $5.65 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.65 – $4.88

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.