Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat expired 14 ¾ cents higher ($5.48 ½), Dec closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.45 ¾) & March 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.54 ½)

Sept KC Wheat expired 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.74 ¾), Dec closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.73 ½) & March 2 ¼ cents higher ($4.84 ½)

Sept Mpls Wheat expired ¼ cent lower ($5.13), Dec closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.30 ½) & March 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.43 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 637.2 K T. vs. 450-700 K T. expected

Weekly US Winter Wheat Progress – Planted – 10% vs. 13% expected vs. 8% 5-year average

Weekly US Spring Wheat Progress – Harvested – 92% vs. 91% expected vs. 92% 5-year average

Weekly wheat export inspections were decent as they favored the high end of expectations. Despite this I get the impression wheat traders and prices appear to be in a short term state of flux even though Chgo and KC were modestly higher. World wheat prices continue to show a firm bias but with a strong Canadian crop coming online it weighs on US origin as evidenced by today’s struggling Mpls market. Granted we have a decent export program but so much of the US demand is dictated by the strength or weakness of the US Dollar. Currently the US dollar is in a consolidation pattern at its recent lower end.

Interior cash wheat prices for HRW remain steady to firm as does its respective export market. The interior SRW cash market is mostly steady as its export market. Chgo spreads were steady upfront (Dec/March) but had a tightening bias going forward. KC spreads ran flat on the day.

The Dec Chgo wheat chart appears to have gone into a correction phase. I’m reluctant to call it a top as the recent price action resembles a downflag. The Dec KC wheat chart has more of a consolidation appearance vs. Chgo’s downflagging appearance. As I mentioned earlier I get the impression this market is in a state of flux – so what does that mean? It tells me the market is waiting for something to come along to push it one way of the other. Remember that US wheat futures are a follower. Right now its trying to figure out what it should follow.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/14

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.38 – $5.65 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.65 – $4.88

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.